Ukraine's Intermediate-Range Strike Campaign and a New Phase of the War¶
Source: Institute for the Study of War
Authors: George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko
Date: May 25, 2026
TL;DR¶
The war is transitioning from a positional stalemate (dominant since 2023) into a new phase of tactical manoeuvre. Ukraine is systematically degrading the Russian "Tactical Reconnaissance-Strike Complex" (TSRC) through a combination of matured operational art, intensified intermediate-range strike campaigns, tactical drone supremacy, and the limited reintroduction of mechanised manoeuvre. Russia's theory of victory — slow attrition — is being invalidated. In April 2026, Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 km² of territory — the first such monthly loss since Summer 2023.
The Shift in Battlefield Dynamics¶
Russian Offensive Power Collapsing¶
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (Jan–Apr) |
|---|---|---|
| Daily advance rate | 13.2 km²/day | 2.9 km²/day |
| Monthly net territorial change | Gains | -116 km² (Apr) |
| Casualties vs. recruitment | Balanced | 9,000+/mo deficit (Jan) |
Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in the last two weeks of February 2026 — the first time since the Summer 2023 counteroffensive.
General Syrskyi (May 15, 2026): "The number of Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded those of Russian forces."
Key Enablers¶
1. Matured Operational Art¶
- Corps system transition (early 2025): Enhanced command and control
- Delta Software mandatory (Aug 2025): Fuses drone feeds, sensors, and weapons into a common real-time operating picture
- Result: More sophisticated campaign design with better shaping operations
2. Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD/DEAD)¶
"Oryx confirmed that Ukrainian forces destroyed 77 Russian surface-to-air-missile (SAM) systems and 23 radar stations in 2025."
ISW has collected visual evidence of no fewer than 107 strikes against Russian ground-based air defense systems since November 2025. This degrades Russia's air defence umbrella, enabling Ukrainian drones and aircraft to operate in limited windows.
3. Intermediate-Range Strike Campaign¶
Ukraine targets Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) at distances exceeding 100–160 km from the frontline:
- T-0509 (Mariupol-Donetsk), M-14, M-18 (Rostov-Crimea land bridge)
- Kherson occupation governor restricted civilian truck traffic on M-18
- Milbloggers warned of a potential cut to the Russian land bridge to Crimea
- M-30 highway near Donetsk City: "Russian forces could no longer safely use due to a persistent threat"
Railway disruption: At least 10 freight trains and rail fuel tankers struck (Mar–Apr 2026), predominantly in occupied Luhansk Oblast. Russia relies heavily on railways and has faced critical locomotive/personnel shortages since 2025.
4. The Hornet UAV — Game-Changing Technology¶
"The Hornet is a low-cost, fixed-wing one-way attack drone with a 150-kilometer range that is part of the drone partnership between Ukraine and US-based Swift Beat LLC."
Why it matters: - AI capabilities allow operation in GPS/communications-denied environments - Starlink connectivity enables beyond-line-of-sight control - Russian EW is ineffective against Hornet drones - Milblogger assessment: Russia will be unlikely to adapt within 6–12 months
Key Takeaways¶
- The positional war is ending — Ukraine is setting conditions for a breakout through a combination of fires, drones, and limited mechanised manoeuvre
- Russia's attrition strategy has hit a wall — casualties exceeding recruitment, territorial losses, and declining advance rates
- The Hornet UAV is a war-changing technology — its AI resilience to EW gives Ukraine a profound advantage in the drone war
- Ukraine's strike campaign is systematically isolating occupied territories — cutting GLOCs and railways threatens Russia's ability to supply forward positions
- A 6–12 month window of Ukrainian advantage exists before Russia potentially adapts to the Hornet threat