Analyst on China's Spent Rocket Stages: Things Only Continue to Get Worse¶
Source: Ars Technica
Date Published: 2026-05-26
Author: Eric Berger
TL;DR¶
China's rapid expansion in orbital launches is being accompanied by a systemic failure to properly dispose of rocket upper stages, directly contradicting long-established international space debris mitigation norms. With China potentially launching over 1,000 rockets in the next decade for megaconstellations, the orbital debris problem is accelerating dangerously.
Key Data & Growth Trajectory¶
- Launch Rate Explosion: China launched <20 rockets/year a decade ago — in 2022 they launched 64, and in 2025 hit a record 93.
- Rocket Body Mass in LEO (600 km–2,000 km):
- 5 years ago: <100 metric tons
- Current: 252 metric tons
Global Comparison of Rocket Body Mass in LEO:
| Country | Mass | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Russia/USSR | ~800 metric tons | Steady or declining |
| China | 252 metric tons | Rapidly increasing |
| United States | ~57 metric tons | Steady |
Expert Analysis¶
"China… continues to abandon many rocket bodies in high low-Earth orbit."
"The total mass of orbital debris is a key variable influencing the long-term sustainment of space. There is broad agreement that abandoning rocket body upper stages in long-lived orbits is not a best practice."
— Jim Shell, Space Domain Awareness expert
Primary Drivers¶
- Megaconstellations: China is deploying massive constellations (Guowang, Spacesail) to compete with Starlink
- High-Altitude Concern: Satellites placed above 800 km, where debris remains in orbit much longer
- Future Surge: China may launch over 1,000 rockets in the next decade
Why Rocket Bodies Are the Most Dangerous Debris¶
| Factor | Rocket Bodies | Satellites |
|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 10+ |
| Control | Dead, uncontrollable | Active, can maneuver |
| Mass | Multi-ton | Typically smaller |
| Risk Ranking | Vast majority of "most concerning" debris objects | Lower priority |
Abandoning Best Practices¶
The international standard: reserve propellant for a deorbit burn (low orbits) or heliocentric orbit burn (high orbits). China is largely bypassing these procedures despite its rapid expansion.
Outlook¶
"Things only continue to get worse."
If current practices persist, the already congested orbital environment will face accelerated deterioration, increasing collision risks for every spacefaring nation and operator.
Key Takeaways¶
- China's launch rate has exploded from <20/year to 93/year in a decade
- Rocket body mass in LEO from China has grown from <100 to 252 metric tons in 5 years
- China is largely bypassing international debris mitigation best practices (deorbit burns)
- Upcoming megaconstellations (Guowang, Spacesail) above 800 km will dramatically worsen the problem
- Rocket bodies are the most dangerous class of debris — multi-ton, uncontrollable objects in long-lived orbits