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Xi Jinping Quit Smoking. China Still Cannot.

Source: Xi Jinping Quit Smoking. China Still Cannot. \ Date Published: 2026-05-27 \ Author/Org: The New York Times \ Time to read: 10 min

TL;DR

President Xi Jinping quit smoking years ago and has publicly acknowledged tobacco as a serious problem for China, yet the country's smoking rates remain stubbornly high — in large part because the state's tobacco monopoly is structurally indispensable, generating roughly $244 billion in profits and taxes in 2025 alone (about 7% of national tax revenue). The regulator and the state-owned producer are the same entity, creating an irreconcilable conflict of interest that has blocked meaningful tobacco control for over a decade.

The Paradox at the Top

Xi Jinping, a former smoker, told WHO officials years ago that he felt much better after quitting and described tobacco use as a serious problem for China. Yet in the 14 years since, as Xi has consolidated more power than any Chinese leader in decades, Beijing has made only slow progress curbing tobacco use or enacting a national indoor smoking ban.

The disconnect is not a failure of will — it is structural.

The $244 Billion Problem

China National Tobacco Corporation, the state monopoly, generated roughly $244 billion in profit and tax revenue in 2025. That is:

  • ~7% of all national tax revenue
  • More than the pretax profits of most Fortune 500 companies
  • Equivalent to the entire GDP of many mid-sized economies

Tobacco taxes alone accounted for 20% of certain provincial government revenues, creating powerful local incentives to keep cigarette sales high.

The Built-In Conflict of Interest

One of the most unusual features of China's tobacco industry is that the same government body regulates cigarette sales while simultaneously operating the country's biggest tobacco producer. The State Tobacco Monopoly Administration serves as both:

  1. Industry regulator — tasked with public health oversight
  2. Monopoly operator — tasked with maximising profits from China Tobacco

This duality means that every policy discussion about smoking reduction is fundamentally undermined by the state's own financial dependence on cigarettes.

A Global Outlier

China consumes more cigarettes than the rest of the world combined. While other countries have sharply reduced smoking rates through taxes, bans, and public health campaigns, China's smoking rate has barely budged. The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, which China ratified in 2006, called for a national indoor smoking ban — nearly 20 years later, one still does not exist.

Key Takeaways

  1. China's tobacco monopoly generated ~$244B in profit and tax in 2025 (~7% of national revenue), creating an immense fiscal dependency on smoking
  2. The state regulator and state producer are the same entity — a structural conflict that blocks tobacco control regardless of leadership intent
  3. China smokes more than the rest of the world combined, with virtually no progress on a national indoor smoking ban or meaningful tobacco tax increases