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Energy Geopolitics and European Markets in Crisis

Source: Francesco Sassi (@Frank_Stones) on X | Volue Power Summit 2026 — Amsterdam

TL;DR

Francesco Sassi (Frank_Stones), a Research Fellow in energy geopolitics and markets at RIE and postdoctoral fellow/assistant professor at the University of Oslo, discusses European energy market dynamics during ongoing crises, the geopolitical implications of energy transitions, and the intersection of energy security with broader geopolitical competition. He delivered a presentation on "The Geopolitics of European Energy Markets in Times of Crisis" at the Volue Power Summit 2026 in Amsterdam. Sassi also serves as an advisor to the Italian Parliament on energy matters.

About Francesco Sassi

Francesco Sassi is a Research Fellow in energy geopolitics and markets at RIE (a research institution focused on energy and environmental economics), and a postdoctoral fellow/assistant professor at the University of Oslo. His expertise spans:

  • Energy geopolitics — how energy flows, infrastructure, and markets intersect with international relations
  • Energy market dynamics — the economics of electricity, gas, and renewable energy markets
  • Statecraft — how nations use energy as a tool of foreign policy and strategic competition

He also serves as an advisor to the Italian Parliament on energy matters, giving his analysis a direct line to policy-making.

The Volue Power Summit 2026 Presentation

Sassi's presentation at the Volue Power Summit 2026 in Amsterdam was titled "The Geopolitics of European Energy Markets in Times of Crisis." This was delivered at a critical moment for European energy:

  • The aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine energy shock (gas supply disruptions, price spikes)
  • The ongoing transition to renewable energy and its infrastructure challenges
  • The reconfiguration of global energy trade flows (LNG, new pipeline routes)
  • The intersection of energy policy with industrial competitiveness and climate goals

Key Themes

1. Energy Security vs. Energy Transition

The crisis has exposed tensions between short-term energy security and long-term decarbonization goals. European nations that rushed to secure alternative gas supplies (LNG from Qatar, the US, and others) have locked in fossil fuel infrastructure that may conflict with net-zero timelines. Sassi frames this as a geopolitical trilemma: security, affordability, and sustainability — you can prioritize any two at the expense of the third.

2. The Russia Legacy

Europe's dependence on Russian gas did not end with the invasion of Ukraine — it transformed. Before 2022, Russian gas flowed via pipelines. Now, the same volumes (or their equivalents) flow as LNG from global markets, often at higher prices and with different geopolitical dynamics. Sassi's analysis traces how the legacy of Russian energy dependence continues to shape European energy policy, even as the direct pipeline link has been severed.

3. Market Design for Crisis Conditions

European electricity markets were designed for a world of stable supply, predictable demand, and gradual transitions. The crisis revealed structural weaknesses:

  • Marginal pricing (where the last unit of generation sets the price for all units) led to extreme price spikes when gas-fired plants became the marginal generators
  • The merit order was disrupted by non-market interventions (price caps, windfall taxes, subsidies)
  • Long-term contracts and PPAs struggled to provide price stability in a volatile environment

Sassi argues for market design reforms that can handle crisis conditions without requiring emergency intervention every time prices spike.

4. The Geopolitics of the Energy Transition

The transition to renewable energy is itself a geopolitical event. Key implications:

  • Critical mineral dependencies — Europe is trading Russian gas dependence for Chinese rare earth dependence (needed for batteries, wind turbines, solar panels)
  • Infrastructure geopolitics — New electricity interconnectors, hydrogen pipelines, and grid upgrades are creating new patterns of interdependence
  • Technology competition — The race for next-generation energy technologies (solid-state batteries, advanced nuclear, green hydrogen) is a dimension of US-China-EU strategic competition

5. Italian and Southern European Perspectives

As an advisor to the Italian Parliament, Sassi brings a Southern European perspective that is sometimes underrepresented in Northern European-dominated energy discussions. Italy's position is distinctive:

  • A major gas hub (connecting North Africa to Central Europe via the Trans-Mediterranean pipeline)
  • High renewable energy potential (solar) but challenging geography (mountainous terrain, seismic risk)
  • Significant industrial energy demand with limited domestic fossil fuel production
  • Exposure to North African political dynamics (Libya, Algeria, Tunisia)

The Broader Context

Sassi's work sits at the intersection of several ongoing research programs:

  • Energy geopolitics as statecraft — How nations use energy endowments, infrastructure, and markets as instruments of national power
  • Crisis resilience — How energy systems respond to shocks (war, sanctions, cyberattacks, extreme weather)
  • European strategic autonomy — Whether the EU can achieve energy independence while decarbonizing

Key Takeaways

  • Francesco Sassi is a Research Fellow at RIE and University of Oslo, and advisor to the Italian Parliament on energy geopolitics
  • European energy markets face a trilemma: security, affordability, and sustainability — you can only prioritize two at a time
  • The Russia-Ukraine crisis transformed but did not end Europe's energy dependence — Russian gas now flows as more expensive LNG
  • European electricity market design needs reform to handle crisis conditions without emergency interventions
  • The clean energy transition creates new geopolitical dependencies (critical minerals, infrastructure, technology)
  • Southern European perspectives (Italy as a gas hub, exposure to North Africa) add important nuance to energy policy debates
  • Sassi's Volue Power Summit 2026 presentation provides a framework for understanding European energy geopolitics in an era of permanent crisis