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Essays

Essay Summary: Living Standards Growth — US vs Northwest Europe

Overview

Matthew C. Klein sides with what he calls the "standard view": that living standards in Northwest Europe have been rising more slowly than in the U.S. since the mid-1990s. This is a response to the ongoing debate between those who accept the standard framing ("Side A") and a revisionist camp ("Side B") that claims the gap is largely an artifact of mismeasurement.

MAI-Thinking-1 — Building a Hill-Climbing Machine

What Is MAI-Thinking-1?

Microsoft AI's MAI-Thinking-1 is a 35 billion active / ~1 trillion total parameter mixture-of-experts (MoE) reasoning model trained entirely from scratch on clean, curated data. It represents a deliberate break from distillation-dependent approaches — the model's capabilities were learned, not inherited.

The project embodies three core principles:

  • Capabilities learned, not inherited — no shadow of a teacher model constraining the ceiling.
  • Simplicity is sustainable — architectural choices favor what can scale cleanly over what is clever.
  • Scientific rigor — every design decision is validated by experiments at the target scale, not extrapolated from toy runs.

Mathematicians Issue Warning as AI Rapidly Gains Ground (Leiden Declaration)

Source: Science Magazine

The Leiden Declaration on AI and Mathematics represents the most significant collective response from a major academic discipline to the encroachment of artificial intelligence. Endorsed by the International Mathematical Union (IMU) and signed by Fields Medalist Peter Scholze, this declaration formalizes the mathematical community's concerns and recommendations.

Essay Summary: Brad Setser — China's Trade Surplus and Capital Outflows

Overview

Brad Setser, a leading expert on global capital flows and trade imbalances at the Council on Foreign Relations, published a thread questioning how China's trade surplus, capital flows, and international investment position are reported and interpreted. His central provocation:

Arguing that China has a comparative advantage at industrial policy is like arguing the U.S. has a comparative advantage at exporting debt.

Essay Summary: Brad Setser — Taiwan's Hidden Currency Intervention

Overview

Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations argues that Taiwan's Central Bank (CBC) engages in more aggressive and more opaque currency manipulation than China's People's Bank of China (PBOC). His analysis, prompted by a Bloomberg article, reveals a sophisticated system of hidden foreign exchange interventions that far exceed official reserve figures.

The State and the People

Overview

Alan Jacobs reflects on the profound transformation of the relationship between the individual and the state, prompted by reading A.J.P. Taylor's classic work English History 1914-1945. The essay traces how World War I — "The Great War" — fundamentally remade the bargain between citizen and government in ways that persist and have deepened into the present era of surveillance capitalism.